[{"type":"bulleted-list","children":[{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"Welcome to US Crypto News Morning Briefing—a morning newsletter summarizing the most important crypto developments of the day ahead."}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"Get your coffees ready because JPMorgan just showed off Wall Street’s shift from spot ETFs to complex Bitcoin Derivative designed around the halving cycle. What you read today could be a hint at a new approach to trading BTC, amid a profound shift in how institutions plan to approach the halving cycle from 2026-2028."}]}]},{"type":"heading-two","children":[{"text":"JPMorgan Introduces New Derivative Product for Bitcoin"}]},{"type":"bulleted-list","children":[{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"JPMorgan has filed for a new structured note linked to "},{"type":"link","url":"https://vn.beincrypto.com/bitcoin-options-etf-ibit-deribit-38-billion/","children":[{"text":"BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF"}]},{"text":" . It offers double-digit fixed returns if BTC hits predetermined targets, but investors could lose their entire Capital if the ETF falls more than 30%."}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"The proposed note, "},{"type":"link","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000121390025114025/ea0266951-01_424b2.htm","children":[{"text":"revealed"}]},{"text":" in a recent regulatory filing, is designed based on "},{"type":"link","url":"https://beincrypto.com/learn/bitcoin-halving-investment-strategies","children":[{"text":"Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle"}]},{"text":" . The structure offers investors a fixed return of 16% if IBIT hits the bank's price target by the end of 2026, and more than 50% return if it hits the target in 2028."}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"However, the offer comes with a big caveat: if the ETF falls more than 30% at any point before maturity, investors could lose their entire Capital ."}]}]},{"type":"block-quote","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"“The Spot ETF saga is over, Wall Street institutions are starting to offer Derivative to everyone,” "},{"type":"link","url":"https://x.com/_FORAB/status/1993651029850939771","children":[{"text":"writes"}]},{"text":" analyst AB Kuai Dong."}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Indeed, the model resembles "},{"type":"link","url":"https://beincrypto.com/learn/best-crypto-derivative-exchanges-2020","children":[{"text":"Derivative trading"}]},{"text":" in that the profits do not come from holding Bitcoin or the ETF. Instead, they come from a contract whose payout depends on the performance of the ETF. Clients never own IBIT or BTC, they would ideally trade with wins and losses based on "},{"type":"link","url":"https://vn.beincrypto.com/bitcoin-may-have-formed-a-bottom-in-november/","children":[{"text":"Bitcoin price performance"}]},{"text":" . On this point, JPMorgan writes a contract as follows:"}]},{"type":"bulleted-list","children":[{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"If IBIT reaches X in 2026 → you get 16%"}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"If you reach X by 2028 → you get more than 50%"}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"If it drops 30% → you lose your Capital"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"JPMorgan made it clear that these notes “do not guarantee repayment of Capital ,” with losses commensurate with the ETF’s decline once the 30% barrier is breache."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"This trade, with its increased upside and risk of total loss, places the note in the high-return/high-volatility category that institutional exchanges typically reserve for sophisticated clients."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Furthermore, it uses barriers and auto-call triggers, the same mechanism applied in equity-linked Derivative products."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"The product's unique mechanisms, which differ from what Spot ETFs offer, include:"}]},{"type":"bulleted-list","children":[{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"Auto call in 2026 = Derivative feature"}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"30% Downside Barrier = Derivative Style Risk Protection"}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"Increased benefit (1.5x) = Derivative leverage"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"This note offers a 1.5x gain, a textbook Derivative benefit built into traditional banking products. Losing 100% if IBIT falls beyond the 30% barrier is akin to holding a long Call Option that expires worthless when the condition breaks."}]},{"type":"heading-two","children":[{"text":"Halving Cycle and Product Fit for JPMorgan"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Meanwhile, the timing was deliberately chosen as history shows that Bitcoin tends to enter a deep bear market around "},{"type":"link","url":"https://vn.beincrypto.com/liquidity-bitcoin-halving-is-cryptos-magic-cycle-finally-broken/","children":[{"text":"two years after each halving event"}]},{"text":" ."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""},{"type":"link","url":"https://beincrypto.com/2024-bitcoin-halving-completed-what-now/","children":[{"text":"The last halving took place in April 2024"}]},{"text":" , with the next contraction expected in 2026, followed by a sharp rebound in 2028, the year of the next halving."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"This pattern closely matches the design of the note:"}]},{"type":"bulleted-list","children":[{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"2026: If IBIT hits JPMorgan's target early, note automatically calls, paying a fixed 16%."}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"2026–2028: If IBIT remains below target, the note remains active, providing 1.5x leverage benefit with no cap if BTC rises in 2028."}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"By 2028: Investors only recover Capital if IBIT avoids a 30% decline."}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"The launch shows that the era of Spot ETFs is giving way to structured products designed for asymmetric returns, leverage and risk exposure."}]},{"type":"heading-two","children":[{"text":"Derivative and its potential"}]},{"type":"bulleted-list","children":[{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"These instruments mirror the Derivative products that traditional banks have used for decades in areas like stocks, commodities and foreign exchange, now moving into the digital asset space."}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"For investors, the appeal lies in the potential for increased returns without directly holding volatile BTC ."}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"However, the risks are equally significant. Bitcoin has experienced 70%-85% price drops historically, and breaking the 30% barrier is not uncommon even in mild bear markets."}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"JPMorgan acknowledged this in the filing, warning that investors “could lose all” of Capital if the underlying ETF breaks that threshold."}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"The note approval process will determine how quickly it reaches institutional trading desks, but what does its design signal:"}]},{"type":"bulleted-list","children":[{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"More Wall Street-developed products,"}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"Many yield-seeking structures involve Bitcoin ETFs, and"}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"More traditional Capital is entering crypto through Derivative rather than spot instruments."}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"As the market approaches the mid-cycle stage of 2026, demand for yield protection and leverage products is likely to increase, making JPMorgan’s move an early look at the next wave of institutional Bitcoin investment."}]},{"type":"heading-two","children":[{"text":"Byte-Sized Alpha"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Here is a summary of today's US crypto news:"}]},{"type":"bulleted-list","children":[{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"Fake delivery man steals $11 million in crypto from "},{"type":"link","url":"https://vn.beincrypto.com/armed-robbery-crypto-attacks-2025/","children":[{"text":"Sam Altman's ex's home"}]},{"text":" ."}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":""},{"type":"link","url":"https://vn.beincrypto.com/trump-fed-chair-hassett-crypto/","children":[{"text":"The Fed in Crypto?"}]},{"text":" Trump's Search for Chairman Takes a Strange Turn"}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"The strategy argues that even if "},{"type":"link","url":"https://vn.beincrypto.com/microstrategy-bitcoin-risk-msci-index-review/","children":[{"text":"Bitcoin drops to $25,000"}]},{"text":" , it won't break their balance sheet."}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"A "},{"type":"link","url":"https://vn.beincrypto.com/bitcoin-price-bottom-risk-analysis/","children":[{"text":"bearish setup"}]},{"text":" could reverse the Bitcoin Dip theory."}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"Trump Pardons CZ—Now "},{"type":"link","url":"https://vn.beincrypto.com/binance-lawsuit-trump-pardon-terror-finance/","children":[{"text":"Binance Faces $1 Billion Terrorism Charges"}]},{"text":" ."}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":""},{"type":"link","url":"https://vn.beincrypto.com/dogecoin-etf-launch-gdog-bwow-market-impact/","children":[{"text":"Grayscale's Dogecoin Spot ETF"}]},{"text":" fell short of analysts' targets on opening day."}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"text":"BSV financier behind Wirecard? New investigation revives "},{"type":"link","url":"https://vn.beincrypto.com/calvin-ayre-wirecard-fraud-bsv/","children":[{"text":"$2.2 billion mystery surrounding Calvin Ayre"}]},{"text":" ."}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""},{"type":"topic","character":"Bitcoin","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"BitcoinHalving","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"Jucom","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"JPMorgan","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":""},{"type":"topic","character":"cryptocurrency","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"coin","currencyId":7,"currency":"btc","symbolId":6,"symbol":"btc_usdt","logo":"https://web.jucoin.online/cdn/coin/logo/btc.png","fullName":"Bitcoin","character":"BTC/USDT","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"coin","currencyId":128,"currency":"ju","symbolId":73,"symbol":"ju_usdt","logo":"https://storage.webstatic.cc/1/currency/3908d2d8-94c4-4db9-9fc5-9a5bdaae5860-1758872417826.png","fullName":"JU","character":"JU/USDT","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"coin","currencyId":8,"currency":"eth","symbolId":7,"symbol":"eth_usdt","logo":"https://web.jucoin.online/cdn/coin/logo/eth.png","fullName":"Ethereum","character":"ETH/USDT","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "}]}]